Multiplication Rule

The multiplication rule is a product used to determine the probability that two events, A and B, both occur.

The multiplication rule follows from the description of conditional probability.

The result is often written as follow, using set notation:

P( A ∩ B ) = P(A | B ) . P(B)

Or

P(A ∩ B) = P(B | A) . P(A)

Where:

P(A) = probability that event A occurs

P(B) = probability that event B occurs

P(A ∩ B) = probability that event A and event B occur

P(A | B) = the conditional probability that event A occur given that event B has occurred already

P(B | A) = the conditional probability that event B occur given that event A has occurred already

For independent an event, that is events which have no influence on one another, the rule simplifies to:

P(A nn B) = P(A). P(B)

That is, the probability of the joint events A and B is equivalent to the product of the individual probabilities for the two events.

Multiplication Rule of Probability

The addition rule helped us resolve problems when we performed one task and wanted to know the probability of two things happening during that task. This topic deals with the multiplication rule. The multiplication rule also deal with two events, but in these problems the events occur as a result of more than one task (rolling one die then another, drawing two cards, spinning a spinner twice, pulling two marbles out of a bag, etc).

When ask to find the probability of A and B, we would like to find out the probability of events A and B happening.

The Multiplication Rule:

Consider events A and B. P(AB)= P(A) P(B).

What The Rule Means:
Expect we roll one die followed by another and want to find the probability of rolling a 4 on the first die and rolling an even number on the second die. Notice in this problem we are not trade with the sum of both dice. We are only commerce with the probability of 4 on one die only and then, as a separate event, the probability of an even number on one dies only.
P(4) = (1)/(6)
P(even) = (3)/(6)
So P(4even) = ((1)/(6) )((3)/(6) ) = (3)/(36)  = (1)/(12)
While the rule can be applied in any case of dependence or independence of events, we should note here that rolling a 4 on one die followed by rolling an even number on the second die are independent events. Each die is treated as a split thing and what happens on the first die does not influence or effect what happens on the second die. This is our basic description of independent events: the outcome of one event does not influence or affect the outcome of another event.

Let's Practice the Multiplication Rule

Assume you have a box with 3 blue marbles, 2 red marbles, and 4 yellow marbles. You are going to draw out one marble, record its color, put it back in the box and draw another marble. What is the probability of pull out a red marble followed by a blue marble?


The multiplication rule says we need to find P(red) P(blue).

P(red) = (2)/(9)
P(blue) =(3)/(9)

P(redblue) = ((2)/(9) )((3)/(9) ) = (6)/(81)  = (2)/(27)
The events in this example were independent. Once the first marble was pull out and its color recorded, it was returned to the box. Therefore, the probability for the second marble was not affected by what happened on the first marble.

Some students find it supportive to simplify before multiplying, but the final answer must always be simplified.


Think the same box of marbles as in the previous example. However in this case, we are going to draw out the first marble, leave it out, and then pull out another marble. What is the probability of pull out a red marble followed by a blue marble?


We can motionless use the multiplication rule which says we need to find P(red) P(blue). But be alert that in this case when we go to pull out the second marble, there will only be 8 marbles left in the bag.

P(red) = (2)/(9)
P(blue) = (3)/(8)

P(redblue) = ((2)/(9) )((3)/(8) ) = (6)/(72)  = (1)/(12)

The events in this example were dependent. When the first marble was pull out and kept out, it affected the probability of the second event. This is what is meant by dependent events.


Assume you are going to draw two cards from a standard deck. What is the probability that the first card is a champion and the second card is a jack (just one of several ways to get “blackjack” or 21).

Using the multiplication rule we get

P(ace) P(jack) = ((4)/(52) )((4)/(51))  = (16)/(2652)  =  (4)/(663)

Notice that this will be the similar probability even if the question had asked for the probability of a jack followed by an ace.